6 Comments
Sep 16Liked by Hedley Rees

The golden period for medicinal discovery and introductions was the 50s to 80s. The pharma was self less, there was good research back up from academics and to be frank, there was enough money to be made by the industry. It was a win win situation for all. Hundreds of drugs for every common and difficult indications were designed, developed and introduced. Many of them are still widely used, having become very affordable after their patents expiry. It is said that some 3000 odd drugs are in currency now for all types of indications. The scenario is different now from what it was in those decades. Big pharma has to depend on block buster new introductions and they are desperate and do not mind short circuiting the market process. Even before it was recognised, but covid 19 has proved that repurposing existing drugs has great potential. The future of medicines lie unlocking the multiple role potential of existing drugs, not on the odd discoveries. Only big pharma has the wherewithal to unlock this potential, but need to devise new marketing strategies to monetise this technical work. In fact, academics and research institutions have a greater practical role in realising this huge potential and small companies will have depend on their support. This is how I see the medicinal scene working out in the next two decades, provided research science reads this signal correctly. If things unfold well, wonderful times are ahead for users and patients, as medicines for difficult indications will be available from common, affordable streams. The dominance of a handful will be a thing of the past.

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moderna has a massive pipeline currently of preclin & clin staged assets. it is 1 of the biggest 'hire-ers' at the moment:

https://www.biospace.com/article/top-12-biotech-companies-hiring-now/?keywords=layoff&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20%7C%20CareerInsider&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=274275651&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-93HvCjtMaTX5DxWWjOYcM2Dqes7A-I-htQlWlcJFnZQYuWa3gq0WWFXFTLyOtdEX780jX96vhyxXSKUeq1hlcx8E2iwA&utm_content=274275651&utm_source=hs_email

it also just publicized effectiveness (increase antibody titters) of its mrna based flu shot in the clinic ph1/2...

https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2023/Moderna-Expands-the-Field-of-mRNA-Medicine-with-Positive-Clinical-Results-Across-Cancer-Rare-Disease-and-Infectious-Disease/default.aspx

"Company's flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, met its primary endpoint in Phase 3 trial; separate Phase 1/2 data demonstrated higher HAI titers than Fluzone HD"

broad review of its therapeutic aims:

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-drug-sales-forecast-flu-rsv-cancer-rare/693540/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202023-09-14%20BioPharma%20Dive%20%5Bissue:54511%5D&utm_term=BioPharma%20Dive

recent changes in pipeline:

https://endpts.com/moderna-cuts-four-programs-in-vaccines-cancer-and-heart-failure-as-it-increases-prioritizes-pipeline/

still believing that there will be BIG consolidation in the usa biopharma market if/when valuations of pre-revenue companies decrease. all of the winners from the covid chaos (pfizer, moderna, gilead) will likely buy late phase clinical staged biopharmas to sure up revenues.

pfizer's recent acquisition activity includes: (just the past 4 yrs)

Array BioPharma: Acquired in June 2019 for $11.4 billion.

Theravance Biopharma: Acquired in January 2020 for $5.4 billion.

Arena Pharmaceuticals: Acquired in March 2022 for $6.7 billion.

Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Ltd.: Acquired in May 2022 for $148.50 per share in cash, for a total equity value of approximately $11.4 billion.

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Big pharma wants big money sorely which can come only from brand new molecules for big diseases - cancer, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, autoimmune etc. m-RNA was a rare bulk opportunity for them which they have exploited very well. There is immense potential in common drugs, hundreds of them from various common indications, for repurposing against these diseases also. Big pharma has no interest in this kind of explorations. This is the job for intrepid researchers from medical schools, universities and institutes. The idea is that even unrelated diseases might share some intermediate pathways as would be the medicines. At present, there may not be many examples. The future of medicinal chemistry lies in opening this scope thoroughly. This is how good treatments for these diseases can become very affordable. The western governments must fund this exploration generously.

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Some would say that Pfizer is Pfukd; On the contrary we maintain that Pfizer is Pfar from Pfinished. No Sir- We urge mankind to arise and Pfollow Pfizer towards a Pfabulous Pfuture.

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